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Grazing Simulation Model
Case Example #5

Vale District, Jordan Resource Area
Allotment #1004, Willow Creek
Category "Improve"

Gluch Seeding North: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 6/10 - 8/25

  • year 2: 6/25 - 8/20

  • year 3: 5/15 - 7/5, 7/25 - 8/25

  • year 4: 6/15 - 8/5

  • year 5: 4/15 - 6/25

  • year 6: 4/25 - 6/25

Gluch Seeding North
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 3
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 120
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 75
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 11 to 1
Predicted average annual change -13%
Minus 1 standard error -28%
Plus 1 standard error 3%

Gluch Seeding East: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: unknown

  • year 2: 4/10 - 6/10, 7/15 - 8/25

  • year 3: 4/25 - 8/5, 8/15 - 8/25

  • year 4: 6/1 - 7/25

  • year 5: 7/1 - 8/20

  • year 6: 6/20 - 7/20

Gluch Seeding East
Cycle (YEARS) 5
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 5
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 2
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 80
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 70
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 3 to 1
Predicted average annual change -8%
Minus 1 standard error -24%
Plus 1 standard error 7%

Gluch Seeding West: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 6/15 - 9/10

  • year 2: 6/5 - 7/15

  • year 3: 4/10 - 5/25, 8/15 - 9/1

  • year 4: 7/15 - 8/1, 9/10 - 9/15

  • year 5: 4/10 - 6/1

  • year 6: 6/15 - 7/20

Gluch Seeding West
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 2
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 55
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 60
Predicted Trend Static (+ or -)
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 1 to 1
Predicted average annual change -1%
Minus 1 standard error -16%
Plus 1 standard error 14%

Black Butte: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 6/15 - 9/10

  • year 2: 6/5 - 7/15

  • year 3: 4/10 - 5/25, 8/15 - 9/1

  • year 4: 7/15 - 8/1, 9/10 - 9/15

  • year 5: 4/10 - 6/1

  • year 6: 6/15 - 7/20

Black Butte
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 2
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 20
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 40
Predicted Trend Static (+ or -)
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 2 to 1
Predicted average annual change 4%
Minus 1 standard error -11%
Plus 1 standard error 20%

Frank Maher Flat: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 5/10 - 6/15

  • year 2: 4/20 - 6/20

  • year 3: 7/1 - 8/10

  • year 4: 4/20 - 6/15

  • year 5: 6/20 - 8/10

  • year 6: 6/25 - 7/25

Frank Maher Flat
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 3
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 65
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 20
Predicted Trend Static (+ or -)
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 2 to 1
Predicted average annual change -4%
Minus 1 standard error -20%
Plus 1 standard error 11%

Willow Creek West: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 4/15 - 7/1, 9/25 - 11/25

  • year 2: 4/15 - 5/25, 7/1 - 9/10

  • year 3: 6/25 - 8/20

  • year 4: 7/15 - 8/20, 9/25 - 10/20

  • year 5: 6/15 - 8/25

  • year 6: 4/10 - 6/20

Willow Creek West
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 3
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 85
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 195
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 6 to 1
Predicted average annual change -11%
Minus 1 standard error -26%
Plus 1 standard error 4%

Willow Creek North: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 4/20 - 7/5

  • year 2: 8/25 - 10/5

  • year 3: 4/10 - 8/25

  • year 4: 4/1 - 8/10

  • year 5: 4/5 - 6/15, 9/15 - 10/15

  • year 6: 6/1 - 8/15

Willow Creek North
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 4
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 135
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 120
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 999 to 1
Predicted average annual change -19%
Minus 1 standard error -34%
Plus 1 standard error -3%

Willow Creek East: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 7/5 - 8/25

  • year 2: 4/15 - 7/5

  • year 3: 5/1 - 6/25

  • year 4: 4/5 - 8/20

  • year 5: 4/10 - 8/10

  • year 6: 7/20 - 8/15

Willow Creek East
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 4
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 115
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 70
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 51 to 1
Predicted average annual change -15%
Minus 1 standard error -30%
Plus 1 standard error 1%

Flat Creek: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 4/10 - 5/10, 7/20 - 9/10

  • year 2: 4/10 - 9/15

  • year 3: 4/1 - 4/15, 7/15 - 8/15

  • year 4: 4/1 - 9/1

  • year 5: 4/1 - 6/25

  • year 6: 4/1 - 8/20

Flat Creek
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 5
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 115
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 150
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 999 to 1
Predicted average annual change -20%
Minus 1 standard error -35%
Plus 1 standard error 4%

Rim Basin: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 5/10 - 7/20

  • year 2: 6/25 - 9/25

  • year 3: 4/15 - 8/15

  • year 4: 4/1 - 6/20

  • year 5: 7/1 - 9/1

  • year 6: 4/20 - 6/20

Rim Basin
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 4
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 105
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 100
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 24 to 1
Predicted average annual change -14%
Minus 1 standard error -30%
Plus 1 standard error 1%

Indian Canyon (East & West): No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 4/5 - 9/25

  • year 2: 4/5 - 7/10

  • year 3: 4/15 - 6/15

  • year 4: 6/20 - 9/1

  • year 5: 4/10 - 6/15

  • year 6: 4/15 - 6/10

Indian Canyon (East & West)
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 5
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 120
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 85
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 999 to 1
Predicted average annual change -19%
Minus 1 standard error -34%
Plus 1 standard error -3%

Horse Ridge East: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 5/1 - 5/15

  • year 2: 6/15 - 7/5

  • year 3: 5/20 - 6/15

  • year 4: 5/20 - 6/25

  • year 5: 4/10 - 5/15

  • year 6: 5/15 - 6/10

Horse Ridge East
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 5
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 55
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 0
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 3 to 1
Predicted average annual change -8%
Minus 1 standard error -24%
Plus 1 standard error 7%

Horse Ridge South: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 5/15 - 7/10

  • year 2: 7/5 - 8/5

  • year 3: 5/20 - 7/1

  • year 4: 6/15 - 8/1

  • year 5: 4/5 - 6/15

  • year 6: 6/10 - 8/1

Horse Ridge South
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 3
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 110
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 5
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 4 to 1
Predicted average annual change -10%
Minus 1 standard error -25%
Plus 1 standard error 6%

Horse Ridge North: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 7/10 - 8/1

  • year 2: 6/5 - 7/15

  • year 3: 6/25 - 7/25

  • year 4: 5/20 - 6/15

  • year 5: 6/10 - 7/15

  • year 6: 5/15 - 6/15

Horse Ridge North
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 2
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 75
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 0
Predicted Trend Static (+ or -)
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 1 to 1
Predicted average annual change -2%
Minus 1 standard error -18%
Plus 1 standard error 13%

Jaca Seeding East: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 4/10 - 5/20, 8/20 - 9/25

  • year 2: 4/15 - 6/10, 8/15 - 9/25

  • year 3: 4/15 - 5/20, 7/5 - 8/5

  • year 4: 4/10 - 5/20, 7/10 - 8/20

  • year 5: 7/5 - 8/20

  • year 6: 4/10 - 8/20

Jaca Seeding East
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 5
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 50
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 140
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 6 to 1
Predicted average annual change -11%
Minus 1 standard error -26%
Plus 1 standard error 5%

Jaca Seeding West: No Planned Grazing Cycle Specified, simulation based on actual use.

  • year 1: 4/5 - 5/5, 7/25 - 8/20

  • year 2: 4/10 - 6/15, 8/5 - 8/20

  • year 3: 4/10 - 5/20, 7/15 - 8/5

  • year 4: 4/10 - 5/25, 7/1 - 7/10

  • year 5: 7/15 - 8/25

  • year 6: 4/10 - 8/20

Jaca Seeding West
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 5
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 45
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 90
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 4 to 1
Predicted average annual change -9%
Minus 1 standard error -24%
Plus 1 standard error 7%