Shared Navigation Interface

 Shared Disclaimers
RangeNet.org Reference Maps Tools Projects Photos Flowers Conferences
Members Crosswords FolkSongs MySpace GoogleVideo Weather Morgue
RangeBiome.org Headlines  Editorials Alerets Links Genesis Cowfree Odds&Ends
Public Domain Photos Morgue        
RangeWatch.org MultiMedia Morgue          

Grazing Simulation Model
Case Example #2

Vale District, Baker Resource Area
Allotment #1302, North Bridgeport
Category "Improve"

Deer Creek Pasture Planned Grazing Cycle

  • year 1: 5/16 - 7/1

  • year 2: 8/25 - 10/15

  • year 3: 5/16 - 7/1

  • year 4: 8/25 - 10/15

  • year 5: 5/16 - 7/1

  • year 6: 6/21 - 8/2

Deer Creek Pasture
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 3
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 100
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 122
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 6 to 1
Predicted average annual change -11%
Minus 1 standard error -27%
Plus 1 standard error 4%

Ebell Creek Pasture Planned Grazing Cycle

  • year 1: 5/16 - 7/1

  • year 2: 8/25 - 10/15

  • year 3: 5/16 - 7/1

  • year 4: 8/25 - 10/15

  • year 5: 5/16 - 7/1

  • year 6: 6/21 - 8/2

Ebell Creek Pasture
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 0
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 0
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 226
Predicted Trend Upward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 3 to 1
Predicted average annual change 8%
Minus 1 standard error -7%
Plus 1 standard error 24%

Dark Canyon Pasture Planned Grazing Cycle

  • year 1: 8/23 - 9/7

  • year 2: 6/21 - 7/6

  • year 3: 8/6 - 8/21

  • year 4: 6/21 - 7/6

  • year 5: 8/23 - 9/7

  • year 6: 10/1 - 10/15

Dark Canyon Pasture
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 0
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 18
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 54
Predicted Trend Upward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 4 to 1
Predicted average annual change 10%
Minus 1 standard error -6%
Plus 1 standard error 25%

French Gulch Pasture Planned Grazing Cycle

  • year 1: 9/7 - 10/15

  • year 2: 5/16 - 6/21

  • year 3: 7/1 - 8/6

  • year 4: 5/16 - 6/21

  • year 5: 9/7 - 10/15

  • year 6: 5/16 - 6/21

French Gulch Pasture
Cycle (YEARS) 6
Utilization Target 50%
YEARS per cycle with any use 6
YEARS per cycle used during May (5/1-5/31) 3
DAYS per cycle used during June (6/2-6/30) 63
DAYS per cycle used during Aug-Dec (8/1-12/31) 82
Predicted Trend Downward
Approximate Odds of Predicted Trend 2 to 1
Predicted average annual change -5%
Minus 1 standard error -21%
Plus 1 standard error 10%